New Delhi, March 8 (IANS) The growing uncertainty over Iran’s leadership after the death of its Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is drawing global attention, with analysts debating who will replace him, a report has said.

However, many experts believe the more important question is what the crisis means for China’s long-term strategy, particularly as Beijing prepares for potential geopolitical tensions involving Taiwan, according to Taipei Times report.

China has deep economic ties with Iran and is the largest buyer of Iranian crude oil. Beijing purchased nearly 90 per cent of Iran’s exported crude last year, amounting to about 1.61 million barrels per day.

The two countries are also linked through a 25-year cooperation agreement worth about $400 billion, which covers areas such as energy, infrastructure and trade. Because of these ties, political stability in Iran is important for China’s economic interests.

Although China does not have a formal role in Iran’s leadership transition, analysts said that Beijing has influence through its ties with powerful institutions such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

According to the Council on Foreign Relations, the IRGC plays a crucial role in shaping Iran’s political future, and any new Supreme Leader would likely require its support to govern effectively.

China has reportedly strengthened its relationship with the military establishment in recent years, especially after the death of former Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi in 2024, as per the report.

For Beijing, the situation in the Persian Gulf is not only about protecting investments in Iran, the report stated.

Analysts said China has spent years developing systems to bypass Western sanctions, including using non-dollar payment systems and alternative shipping networks.

These mechanisms were partly built while trading with Iran, but experts believe they also serve as a testing ground for how China might handle sanctions in a future crisis involving Taiwan.

Energy security is a major concern for China. A large portion of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and around 84 per cent of that oil goes to Asian markets.

China alone imported about five million barrels per day through the strait last year, representing nearly half of its total crude imports. Any disruption in this route could therefore hit China’s industrial economy hard.

Energy analysts warn that if Iran were to block or seriously disrupt the strait, global oil prices could surge to between $100 and $130 per barrel.

Such a spike could slow China’s economic growth at a time when its economy is already facing challenges.

Although China has built large strategic oil reserves, these stockpiles would only provide temporary relief in the event of a prolonged disruption.

–IANS

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