New Delhi, May 1 (IANS) When the Assembly poll results are declared on Monday, Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma would be expecting more than a win, aiming to break out of the 60-seat bind and give the BJP its first-ever majority on its own.​

In 2016, when the Bharatiya Janata Party came to power in Assam, it formed a government with the support of its two main allies, the Asom Gana Parishad and the Bodoland People’s Front.​

In an Assembly with 126 members, the Bharatiya Janata Party won 60 of the 89 seats it contested with its partners, collecting some 29.51 per cent of the overall mandate. It registered a huge increase from the five it had won earlier.​

Meanwhile, the Asom Gana Parishad contested 30 seats, winning 14, with about 8.14 per cent vote share, while the Bodoland People’s Front fielded candidates in 13, winning all but one.​

The Congress lost power, sliding down to 26 seats out of the 122 it contested, with a 30.96 per cent vote share.​

The Bharatiya Janata Party fell short of a majority in 2021, again winning 60 seats, but gained vote share, rising to 33.21 per cent. The Asom Gana Parishad fell to nine seats out of 29 contested.​

The United People’s Party Liberal, which failed to win any seats in 2016 in alliance with the Congress, won six seats this time, partnering with the BJP​

The Bharatiya Janata Party’s first Chief Minister of Assam, Sarbananda Sonowal, was retained to head the ministry but later moved to the Centre and was inducted into the Union Cabinet.​

Himanta Biswa Sarma became the Chief Minister in May 2021 and has successfully headed the Assam government and the North-East Democratic Alliance in the seven northeastern states.​

His tenure is also marked by a sharp ideological shift, where he quit the Congress in 2015, citing two main reasons. He alleged leadership and succession conflicts with “family-centric” faces at the top.​

He is also critical of the party over ideological and identity-based concerns, arguing that the Congress did not adequately prioritise Assamese identity and regional interests.​

Sarma had emerged as a powerful strategist within the Assam Congress and hoped to succeed Tarun Gogoi as Chief Minister. ​

He has claimed that a majority of Congress Members of the Legislative Assembly in Assam at the time backed him as the next head of government, but the central leadership was reluctant to promote him, instead favouring “family-centric” leadership choices.​

After joining the Bharatiya Janata Party, he has since become one of the party’s key architects in the Northeast, where he claims the Bharatiya Janata Party’s emphasis on “nation first” and strong border-state security is better aligned with his vision for Assam.​

He has successfully projected the “infiltrator” aspect as the larger issue, where the indigenous population has been wary of the alleged Bangladeshi influx. There have been several skirmishes, even riots, between locals and Bengali-speaking Muslims.​

According to the 2011 census, Assam is home to 61.50 per cent Hindus, with Muslims being 34.22 per cent. Some, however, claim the latter has increased manifold.​

Sarma has used this divide to consolidate the North-East Democratic Alliance, especially in Assam, terming Muslims as “Mian”, which otherwise is an honorific title.​

Despite the allegations of polarisation against him, Sarma has publicly framed “peace, harmony, and development” as the three headline achievements of his four-year term.​

Administratively, he has positioned himself as a decisive, development-focused leader overseeing infrastructure expansion, digital governance reform, and social welfare initiatives.​

Recent reports of an imminent change in the Chief Ministerial position appear to be framed around a hypothetical anti-incumbency scenario. Till now, there has been no evidence that the BJP leadership has internally shortlisted or formally signalled a replacement plan.​

But it will be seen what the party’s central leadership decides after the poll results are declared on Monday.​

–IANS

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