Kochi, July 10 (IANS) Even as Indian oil sardine stocks remain abundant this year, the country’s premier marine research institute, CMFRI, has warned that an emerging El Nino event could sharply reduce sardine availability in 2027, with marine heat waves and rising sea temperatures threatening fish production along the Indian coast.

ICAR-Central Marine Fisheries Research Institute (CMFRI) Director Dr Grinson George sounded the warning while inaugurating the National Fish Farmers Day celebrations at the institute here on Friday.

According to Dr George, the warming associated with El Niño is expected to intensify during October-December this year, with its impact likely to be felt across the northern Indian Ocean by April-May 2027.

“Oil sardine stock is abundant this year, but the resource is likely to be affected in 2027 if the projected warming occurs. Small pelagic fishes, especially oil sardine, are the most vulnerable to marine heat waves and ocean warming,” he said.

Dr George warned that the anticipated warming could lead to a decline in overall marine fish production, affecting both the fishing industry and the livelihoods of coastal communities.

Drawing attention to climate projections, he said available scientific information points to a high probability of marine heat waves, elevated sea surface temperatures, and increased salinity during April and May next year.

The impact, he cautioned, could extend beyond sardines.

Sustained ocean warming may damage fragile coral reef ecosystems, triggering coral bleaching and reducing the abundance of reef-associated species such as red snapper.

To help the fishing community prepare for the changing conditions, the CMFRI announced that it would begin issuing El Nino advisories to fishermen and fish farmers later this year, enabling them to make informed decisions on fishing and aquaculture practices.

Fish farmers were also advised to prepare for sudden environmental changes. Dr George said heavy rainfall following prolonged periods of high temperature and salinity could cause rapid fluctuations in salinity levels, disrupting coastal aquaculture and increasing the risk of production losses.

He stressed that continuous monitoring of ocean conditions and adaptive management strategies would be crucial to minimising the impact of climate change on marine resources and safeguarding the livelihoods of fishers and coastal fish farmers.

As part of the National Fish Farmers Day programme, CMFRI scientists also conducted technical sessions on coastal aquaculture, cage fish farming, marine fish seed production, black soldier fly-based organic waste management, feed formulation, and various government schemes and subsidies available to fish farmers.

–IANS

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