China: Beijing’s economic interests in Afghanistan outweigh likely threats from the Taliban
What happened?
On 16 August 2021, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying held a regular press conference and stated: “China has maintained contact and communication with the Afghan Taliban and played a constructive role in promoting the political settlement of the Afghan issue.” She demonstrated tacit support for the Taliban by adding: “We hope the Afghan Taliban can form solidarity with all factions and ethnic groups in Afghanistan, and build a broad-based and inclusive political structure suited to the national realities, to lay the foundation for achieving enduring peace in the country.” The statement also read: “China respects the Afghan people’s right to decide on their own future independently. We are ready to continue to develop good-neighbourliness and friendly cooperation with Afghanistan and play a constructive role in Afghanistan’s peace and reconstruction.” With this, she confirmed that the Chinese embassy in Afghanistan is operating smoothly with its staff despite many Chinese nationals being brought back to China.
What does it mean?
First, China was apprehensive of the American presence in Afghanistan. However, now the withdrawal, too, causes another apprehension. The US will not have any liabilities in South Asia and would direct its resources towards China. Second, recognition from China would give legitimacy to the Taliban and open doors for integrated cooperation. There may be some distrust with the Taliban’s promises, but Chinese economic interests in Afghanistan speak louder.
Russia: For Moscow, the Central Asian concerns are crucial in Taliban’s Afghanistan
What happened?
On 17 August, the Russian ambassador to Afghanistan Dmitry Zhirnov praised the Taliban’s conduct and described its approach as “good, positive and business-like.” He said the Taliban had made Kabul safer than it was under the previous authorities. Dmitry Zhirnov, called the Taliban “reasonable guys” following a “positive and constructive meeting”. He added that the Taliban guaranteed the Russian embassy’s security.
On 19 August, Sergey Lavrov said: “We see encouraging signs from the Taliban who say they would like to have a government that includes other political forces.” On 20 August, Zhirnov described the situation in Afghanistan as one of cautious hope and said that “it should be better” calling for the Taliban to take socio-economic measures to help boost development.
What does it mean?
First, the Russian government is confident about the intentions of the Taliban in Afghanistan. However, it has declared that it would not be making any unilateral decisions on giving the Taliban a dejure recognition. As per the 2003 status, the Taliban remains a terrorist group. Russia has assured that it will only change its status if the United Nations does.
Second, Russia is now interested in filling the void created by the US exit, with its main focus on securing regional cooperation with Uzbekistan and Tajikistan to secure Central Asian stability. Russia may have to adapt to new realities in Afghanistan and pursue its strategy accordingly.
Afghanistan: With the Taliban back, Pakistan feels victorious in Kabul
What happened?
On 17 August, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan declared that the Afghans had “broken the shackles of slavery” in a war-torn country. He believes that the withdrawal was a “logical solution.” Roofi Hasan, who is the Prime Minister’s special assistant, took to Twitter to state that Ashraf Ghani’s “corrupt” government rule was a “virtually smooth shift” to the Taliban. Many retired and serving generals are thrilled that Pakistan will finally have “friends” in the driving seat in Kabul, and have expressed admiration openly for the Taliban.
On 20 August, Pakistan’s army and the Taliban held a “meet and greet” at the border areas. One of the Pakistani soldiers was also seen taking a selfie with one of the Taliban. The friendly act came after Islamabad released terrorist Mullah Mohammad Rasool, the leader of a splinter faction of the Taliban. He spent around five years in Pakistan prison and was freed days after the collapse of the Ashraf Ghani administration. On the same day, Imran Khan urged his ministers to refrain from commenting on the Taliban takeover as it is a “sensitive matter.”
On 21 August, reports suggested, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi was likely to visit Kabul on 22 August 2021. Pakistan is determined to play a “positive role” and their envoy in Afghanistan said in a statement, that he is also in touch with different Afghan personalities.
What does it mean?
The return of the Taliban can have both good and bad implications on Pakistan. Pakistan may feel better with the exit of the US and the likely decline in the Indian presence in Afghanistan. Pakistan may also feel better with a friendly regime in Kabul, which has been one of its primary interests in Afghanistan. However, there are dangers as well for Pakistan. What lessons will the Tehreek-e-Taliban (TTP) and other extremist groups in Pakistan learn from the success of the Taliban?