New Delhi, April 19 (IANS) US hedge fund billionaire Ray Dalio warned that the growing conflicts involving the US, Israel and Iran are part of a broader, interconnected pattern that could amount to the early stages of a world war.

Ray Dalio said in a detailed post on X that multi-theater conflicts increasingly happen which resembles a concluding phase in past patterns leading to a world war. Outlining a 13‑step historical pattern he calls the “Big Cycle,” Dalio said the world is at step 9, and only three more steps remain as per past patterns for a world war.

“Within countries, loyal support for the country’s leadership is demanded and opposition to the war and other policies is squashed,” he predicted the next step.

Then direct military combat between major powers occurs followed by “huge increases in taxes, debt issuance, money creation, foreign exchange controls, capital controls, and financial repression to finance the wars.”

Current conflicts such as Russia‑Ukraine‑Europe‑US, Israel‑Gaza‑Lebanon‑Syria and the Yemen‑Sudan‑Saudi Arabia‑UAE resemble past world wars and involve major powers, alliances and trade disputes.

“Together, these conflicts make up a very classic world war that is analogous to past ‘world wars’,” Dalio said., adding that “I don’t know what’s going to happen, and I still hope for a peaceful world built on win-win relationships.”

He warned that the US is “the most overextended major power” with over 700 military bases in over 70 countries and argued it is also “the weakest at withstanding pain over a long period of time.”

He found it likely for “some problems develop in Asia that would test and reveal the United States’ willingness to rise to the challenge.”

However, the US would find it difficult to rise to the challenge because “of its extensive preoccupying commitment in the Middle East and the lack of American public support for the Iran war going into the midterm elections,” he predicted.

Such a dynamic could prompt other governments with US military bases to reassess expectations about US support.

He urged investors to pay attention to global alliances such as China-Russia and Iran and larger ones involving North Korea and Cuba while the US is aligned with Europe, Israel, Japan, Australia and Gulf countries.

“These alliances matter a lot in imagining how things will go for the relevant players, so they need to be considered when observing what’s going on and what’s likely to happen,” Dalio added.

–IANS

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