New Delhi, June 15 (IANS) India is better positioned to withstand the impact of a potentially weak monsoon and emerging El Nino conditions this year, backed by higher reservoir levels, record foodgrain stocks and structural improvements in the economy, according to a report released on Monday.

Despite monsoon concerns flagged by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), a report by CareEdge Ratings said India’s resilience to weather-related shocks has improved significantly over the years.

Reservoir storage levels stood at 30.4 per cent of full reservoir capacity in May 2026, higher than the average 25.1 per cent recorded during previous El Niño years between 2015-16 and 2023-24, it added.

In addition, buffer stocks of wheat and rice were at record levels at the end of April, providing a cushion against supply disruptions and inflationary pressures.

Notably, the IMD has projected rainfall at 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) during the southwest monsoon season, indicating below-normal rainfall across the country.

Moreover, the weather office has highlighted a high probability of El Niño conditions developing during the monsoon months.

The report noted that the Indian economy has become less dependent on monsoon outcomes due to structural transformation over the decades.

Agriculture’s share in Gross Value Added (GVA) has declined from 53.2 per cent in FY1951 to 16.8 per cent in FY26, while the services sector’s share has expanded significantly.

At the same time, irrigation coverage has increased from 17.1 per cent of gross sown area in FY1951 to 60 per cent in FY2024, reducing reliance on rainfall.

Moreover, the report highlighted the government’s efforts to promote climate-resilient agriculture, noting that 2,996 climate-resilient crop varieties were released between 2014 and 2025.

Diversification within agriculture towards livestock, fisheries and allied activities has further strengthened the sector’s resilience.

While the ratings agency cautioned that a poor monsoon could still affect farm incomes, rural demand and food prices, it said the overall macroeconomic impact is likely to remain manageable at the aggregate level, although localised disruptions cannot be ruled out.

–IANS

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