Ahmedabad, Oct 21 (IANS) The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast light to moderate rain or thundershowers over the next few days in parts of South Gujarat and adjoining union territories.

According to the IMD’s latest bulletin, Dang, Tapi, Navsari, Valsad, and the UTs of Daman, Dadra, and Nagar Haveli may experience intermittent rainfall till October 25, while the rest of the state is expected to remain dry.

From October 25 onward, weather conditions are likely to stabilise, with dry weather prevailing across Gujarat. Meteorologists attribute the unexpected post-monsoon showers to the presence of three active weather systems over the region.

These include a well-marked low-pressure area over the southeast Arabian Sea, a newly formed low-pressure area in the Bay of Bengal, and an upper-air cyclonic circulation persisting off the Kerala coast.

The IMD on Tuesday observed that the low-pressure system over the southeast Arabian Sea was likely to intensify into a depression within 24 hours, moving slowly westward. Simultaneously, under the influence of an upper-air cyclonic circulation over the Bay of Bengal, another low-pressure area developed over the southwest Bay, extending up to 7.6 km above mean sea level, and is expected to strengthen further over the next 36 hours.

In addition, a cyclonic circulation off the Kerala coast and a trough extending from the Arabian Sea to the Bay of Bengal continue to influence atmospheric conditions. A separate system over northwest Rajasthan, extending to central Madhya Pradesh, and a Western Disturbance at mid-tropospheric levels — roughly along longitude 66 degrees E and north of latitude 25 degrees N — also remain active.

Overall, weather experts say South Gujarat could witness sporadic post-monsoon activity through the week before skies clear from October 26 onward, marking the transition to a dry and stable early winter phase for the state. Gujarat has recorded close to 90 per cent of its long-period average (LPA) rainfall by the end of August, with the total seasonal rainfall at around 792.93 mm against a normal of below 882 mm.

Across regions, the percentages vary: South Gujarat stands at 93.7 per cent of normal, East-Central at about 88.6 per cent, Saurashtra at 84.3 per cent, and Kutch at 85.1 per cent. By early September, some data suggest the statewide average had climbed above 100 per cent of LPA — for example, 102.89 per cent as of a certain date, with South Gujarat around 108 per cent, North Gujarat at 107 per cent, and Saurashtra at 91 per cent.

–IANS

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