New Delhi, April 23 (IANS) The Reserve Bank of India purchased $7.41 billion in the foreign exchange market during February this year on a net basis, marking the second straight month of net dollar buys, data from the monthly bulletin released on Thursday showed.

The value of the Indian rupee rose 1 per cent vis-a-vis the dollar in February to post its first monthly gain in 10 months following the announcement of a trade deal between India and the US.

During the month, the RBI purchased $21.4 billion and sold $13.99 billion. In January, it had bought a net $2.5 billion.

The RBI’s net outstanding forward dollar sales stood at $77.67 billion as of end-February, compared with $67.77 billion at the end of the previous month.

The recovery of the rupee, however, was short-lived as the breakout of the conflict in the Middle East disrupted global energy markets, triggering record foreign portfolio outflows from Indian capital markets.

The rupee plunged to an all-time low of 95.21 in late March but has since been shored up by central bank measures to curb speculative trading. The Indian currency currently hovers at around 93.50 per US dollar.

Meanwhile, the RBI has projected India’s real GDP growth at 6.9 per cent in 2026-27, and the bulletin says this reflects the sustained resilience in domestic economic activity supported by private consumption and robust fixed investment.

However, it also states that these baseline assumptions are subject to uncertainties emanating from the evolving global trade landscape and heightened tensions in West Asia.

Global economic activity has remained broadly resilient through H2:2025 and into early 2026, prompting the IMF to revise the global growth forecast marginally upward to 3.3 per cent for 2026 in its January 2026 update of the World Economic Outlook. However, this resilience is in specific sectors and regions, driven predominantly by technology-related investment, particularly in artificial intelligence infrastructure, and concentrated mainly in North America and parts of Asia, rather than reflecting broad-based demand recovery, the bulletin states.

Persistent geopolitical tensions continue to cloud the outlook. The current West Asia conflict has intensified with attacks on energy infrastructure across the Gulf, disrupting global energy supply. The selective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has severely impacted the trade in the Gulf region. Overall, the conflict has significantly deteriorated the near-term outlook on global trade and growth. Wider fiscal imbalances in major economies could push up long-term interest rates and tighten global financial conditions, with adverse spillovers for EMEs through capital outflows, the RBI bulletin added.

–IANS

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