New Delhi/Ottawa, Feb 12 (IANS) India and Canada are not linked by geography or alliance structures but by economic complementarity and shared global governance interests – ties that have historically endured, a report said on Thursday.

If current trends persist, India–Canada relations over the next decade are likely to be driven less by political turbulence and more by investment flows, energy integration, supply chain partnerships and deeper people-to-people ties, former diplomat Sanjay Kumar Verma opined in ‘India Narrative’.

He stated that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s expected visit to India in the next few weeks is likely to signal a shift from stabilisation to a more structured phase of expansion in the bilateral ties, with a strong focus on trade architecture, investment flows and long-term energy integration.

“Movement toward finalising the Terms of Reference for a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement could represent the most consequential next step in institutionalising economic engagement between the two countries. Greater regulatory facilitation of Indian exports in pharmaceuticals, digital services, engineering goods, and refined petroleum products would significantly expand Indian market access in Canada,” wrote Verma.

“Reciprocally, India is expected to further open market space for Canadian exports in energy resources, potash, pulses, timber, and advanced agricultural technology. Canadian institutional capital already ranks among the largest sources of foreign institutional investment in Indian infrastructure and renewable energy. A structured trade framework has the potential to substantially scale bilateral trade volumes over the coming decade, possibly doubling current levels if tariff, regulatory, and mobility barriers are progressively reduced,” the seasoned diplomat added.

According to Verma, apart from trade, the visit is expected to help shape a clearer economic, security, and strategic framework for the next phase of the partnership.

“Energy cooperation is expected to deepen through structured hydrocarbon supply engagement and expanded discussions on long-term uranium procurement to support India’s civil nuclear expansion and clean baseload energy requirements. Supply chain complementarities are likely to drive reciprocal market access conversations across agriculture, energy, advanced manufacturing inputs, and services trade,” he stated.

“Industrial and technology collaboration is expected to expand across critical minerals processing, advanced materials, aerospace, digital technologies, and next-generation manufacturing ecosystems. Clean and green technology cooperation, including renewable energy integration, carbon management technologies, and emerging hydrogen value chains, is likely to emerge as a defining pillar of the relationship. Parallel expansion is expected across innovation ecosystems, including research collaboration, start-up partnerships and advanced skills mobility,” Verma detailed further.

Along with advancing economic objectives, the report said the visit is also expected to deepen cooperation on security challenges, particularly in countering cross-border terrorism, including Khalistani networks and anti-India elements based in Canada, as well as their financing and transnational enablers.

It highlighted that enhanced coordination between law enforcement and security agencies is expected to “focus on intelligence sharing, disruption of illicit financial flows, and joint action against organised criminal and terror-linked supply chains”.

“At the multilateral level, both sides are also expected to reiterate support for reform of global governance institutions, including the United Nations system, to better reflect contemporary geopolitical and economic realities, strengthen counter-terror cooperation frameworks, and improve the effectiveness of global development and security responses,” Verma noted.

–IANS

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